Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Sat 24 Jan 2026

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0642 UTC 24/01/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Luana
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 122.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (124 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/1200: 17.3S 123.3E:     025 (045):  045  (085):  989
+12:  24/1800: 17.7S 123.7E:     035 (065):  040  (075):  991
+18:  25/0000: 18.1S 124.0E:     040 (075):  035  (065):  994
+24:  25/0600: 18.6S 124.0E:     050 (095):  030  (055):  997
+36:  25/1800: 19.7S 124.1E:     065 (125):  025  (045):  1000
+48:  26/0600: 21.4S 123.9E:     080 (150):  025  (045):  1000
+60:  26/1800: 23.5S 124.5E:     095 (170):  025  (045):  1000
+72:  27/0600: 25.2S 125.3E:     105 (190):  025  (045):  999
+96:  28/0600: None None:     None (None):  None  (None):  None
+120: 29/0600: None None:     None (None):  None  (None):  None

REMARKS:
The centre of Tropical Cyclone Luana is estimated to have moved over the Kimberley coast between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque around 5:30 UTC (3:30 pm WST) today. The signature of Luana has improved on both satellite and radar over the past six hours, despite increasing proximity to the coast, and it exhibited a ragged satellite eye just prior to crossing. Centre position estimated from Broome radar with good confidence. Dvorak analysis (prior to crossing) based on a consensus of curved band (1.0 wrap for DT 3.5-4.0) and eye (DG surround, subtracting 0.5 for an elongated eye giving DT 4.0). 3 hour average DT was 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is adjusted to 4.0. Final T 3.5 based on DT, with CI also 3.5. Recent objective aids (1 min means) were AiDT 44 kn (0300 UTC), DPRINT 50 kn (0520 UTC), MW sounders (0459 UTC) 56 kn, SATCON (0300 UTC) 52 kn. Intensity set at 50 knots based on subjective Dvorak showing a strengthening trend since last analysis. Surrounding observation sites have reported only intermittent gales so far. In the absence of land, the environment would remain favourable for further development. Sea surface temperatures are around 30 - 31 C. The system is located under a broad deep layer shear minimum with upper outflow evident on both the poleward and equatorward sides. Given this, the system may maintain intensity for some hours after landfall due to proximity to the waters of King Sound. Weakening below TC strength is not forecast until Sunday when the system is inland from Derby. Motion continues to be to the southeast under the influence of a mid-level trough to the southwest. This is expected to continue for another 12 to 18 hours. Beyond that, a weak mid-level ridge will form the east and take the remnant low south over inland WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.