News

Unseasonable fire risk in southern Australia this winter

Source Weatherzone Fri 30 May 2025

Abnormally high fire risk is anticipated across parts of South Australia and Victoria this winter as the ongoing drought causes a seemingly endless 2025 fire season in southern Australia. Australia’s official seasonal bushfire outlook for winter 2025 was released by AFAC this week. The outlook predicts that a broad area of SA and Vic will have an increased risk of fires this season, despite winter usually being a quiet time for fires in southern Australia. Image: Winter 2025 seasonal bushfire outlook. Source: AFAC June to August is typically a time of year when the focus of bush and grass fires shifts towards northern Australia. This is because northern Australia is warm, dry and windy through the middle of the year, while southern Australia is usually cold and wet. This winter, however, is expected to be an active fire season for both northern and southern Australia at the same time. Ongoing rainfall deficiencies in southern Australia over the past couple of years have left an abundance of dry vegetation to burn. This increased fire fuel will combine with above average temperatures to elevate the risk of fires in parts of SA and Vic this winter. According to the AFAC outlook, cropping and grassland areas of SA and Vic are grazed out or mostly bare, which will help suppress fires in these areas. However, forested areas that have underlying moisture deficits and an abundance of dry material to burn will be at an elevated risk of winter fires. “The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter 2025 identifies a heightened risk of fire for southern coastal areas of SA and significant portions of western, southwestern and southeastern Victoria,” AFAC stated in its report. While fire behaviour will be near-normal for most other areas of Australia this winter, there are a few other areas that have been flagged as potential areas to watch this season. Dry areas in central, western and southern NSW may be able to support winter fires this season, particularly if winter rainfall is below average. Tasmania is also likely to see organic soils smouldering throughout winter due to the state’s ongoing deep soil dryness. These burning organic soils, which are a hangover from summer fires, are difficult to extinguish. They may persist long enough to start new fires when warmer and drier weather starts to occur later in the year. Recent rainfall has also boosted vegetation growth in parts of the NT and Central Australia, which could boost fire fuel loads in the coming weeks and months. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2025