Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Wed 18 Mar 2026

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 18/03/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 153.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west (280 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/0600: 12.6S 152.0E:     035 (070):  070  (130):  978
+12:  18/1200: 13.0S 150.8E:     045 (085):  075  (140):  973
+18:  18/1800: 13.4S 149.5E:     055 (100):  090  (165):  960
+24:  19/0000: 13.7S 148.2E:     055 (105):  090  (165):  960
+36:  19/1200: 13.8S 145.9E:     060 (115):  105  (195):  944
+48:  20/0000: 13.9S 143.8E:     070 (130):  105  (195):  944
+60:  20/1200: 13.9S 141.6E:     080 (145):  045  (085):  994
+72:  21/0000: 14.0S 139.1E:     090 (165):  060  (110):  985
+96:  22/0000: 14.0S 134.2E:     100 (185):  040  (075):  998
+120: 23/0000: 14.2S 129.7E:     120 (220):  030  (055):  1003

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) continues to develop in the northern Coral Sea. However, intensification has stalled somewhat in recent hours, possibly due to Narelle's proximity to southeastern PNG islands. Position is based on visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT (2218 UTC) passes with good confidence. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1742Z shows a microwave eye. No eye is visible on visible or EIR imagery. Dvorak analysis using a curved band pattern with a 3-hour averaged wrap of 0.9-1.2 yields a DT of 3.5-4.0, although the banding pattern in unclear. A CDO of 90-100 with BF yields DF 4.0. A 24-hour D+ trend yields a MET of 3.5, and PT adjusted to 4.0. FT/CI is based on PT and is 4.0. Intensity is estimated at 60 knots based on Dvorak and generally in line with objective aids. Objective guidance at 2300 UTC unless otherwise stated (all one-minute mean); ADT 59 kn, AidT 65 kn, DPRINT 64 kn, SATCON 64 kn (1600 UTC). Environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification. Narelle lies in a region of low vertical wind shear, in the range of 5 to 10 knots, and is expected to remain in this region with favourable low shear and good upper outflow. Other parameters remain supportive at least until landfall, including, warm sea surface temperatures of around 28 30 C, and generally deep moisture, dry air is currently remaining well to the west and is unlikely to impact development. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast until landfall. The rate of intensification may be aided from Thursday by the approach of a new upper trough which leads to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. A category 5 peak intensity is forecast. This is expected to occur shortly before interactions with the Queensland east coast increase, and consequently some weakening before the centre of Narelle is anticipated. If Narelle tracks a little further north it may maintain category 5 intensity until landfall. There is very good confidence in the westward tracks of Narelle, with the subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There remains, however, some variation in how quickly Narelle moves west, and Narelle may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Thursday afternoon, which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. This uncertainty in timing also impacts the intensification forecast, and there is a chance that Narelle either begins to interact with land and weaken earlier, or slows and intensifies more than forecast. After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably weaken, though is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Once over Gulf waters, the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast. There is forecast to be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are around 30 C), with light wind shear continuing, and sufficient deep moisture for Narelle to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern Territory. Looking further ahead, after crossing the Northern Territory coast, Narelle is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity and continue its track west, moving across the Top End and then the Kimberly as a tropical low.

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